The US jobs market beat expectations by more than double in March, but February losses were quietly revised to be far worse than first reported

The US jobs market added 178,000 new jobs in March, more than double the 70,000 economists had predicted. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.3%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the good news came with a catch; February’s numbers were quietly revised to show a loss of 133,000 jobs, which was far worse than what was first reported.

According to The Guardian, this back-and-forth has become a pattern in the US labor market for ten straight months now. January saw a gain of 160,000 jobs after revision, February swung to a loss of 133,000, and March came back with a gain of 178,000. Each monthly report looks dramatic on its own, but the bigger picture remains unclear.

This kind of sustained month-to-month swinging is unusual. Looking back at payroll data all the way to 1939, there are only two other comparable periods: a five-month stretch in 1959, and a six-month period from late 1969 into early 1970. The current run is already longer than both, and the swings are getting wider, not narrower.

The broader jobs trend points to a cooling labor market despite the dramatic monthly swings

Despite the dramatic headlines, the 12-month average for net payroll growth has slowed to around just 20,000 jobs a month. This suggests the labor market is losing steam overall, even if individual months look strong. Workers, employers, and policymakers are all left trying to make sense of a mixed and conflicting picture.

For people looking for work, the situation is harder than the headline numbers suggest. The share of workers who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer went up in March. The number of “marginally attached” workers; those who want a job but haven’t actively looked recently, also rose, along with the number of discouraged workers.

A recruiter has already sounded the alarm on mass layoffs hitting certain sectors, and the data appears to back that concern up. On the employer side, March’s rebound shows that hiring is still happening, but it doesn’t look broad or confident. 

Around 90,000 of the 178,000 jobs added in March came from healthcare alone, largely as a rebound after a strike had weighed on February’s numbers. That kind of concentrated growth is not a reliable sign of widespread economic strength.

Other signs of caution are also visible. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 217,362 job cuts in the first quarter of 2026. While that is the lowest first-quarter total since 2022, it is still a large number. February hiring slowed to a six-year low, with dips in construction and leisure and hospitality. 

The “quits rate”, how many people voluntarily leave their jobs, fell to 1.9%, its lowest since 2020, suggesting workers are choosing to stay put rather than take risks. This pattern is not limited to one industry, as hundreds of jobs being cut amid market struggles has become a broader theme across multiple sectors.

According to Yahoo Finance, this slowdown is not new. In 2025, the economy added only 116,000 jobs for the entire year; roughly what used to be added in a single month in stronger years. Inflation has also been unsteady, dipping to 2.3% in April 2025 before rising back to 3% by September. Since the start of this year, price increases have held steady at 2.4%, still higher than what many would consider comfortable.

A bigger concern now is the US-Israel war in Iran, which experts warn could push inflation even higher. US average gas prices already broke through $4 a gallon last month, and rising oil costs tend to spread into other industries. 

This is reminiscent of 2022, when gas hit $5 a gallon after Russia invaded Ukraine and inflation reached a generational high of 9%. Experts have noted that every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil can lead to a 0.2% rise in inflation; a figure worth watching closely given the current situation.